By Anders Lorenzen

The share of coal in US’s electricity system have come down significantly in the first four months of 2024 to 15%, the lowest it has been in four years, but it is however a large number compared how other western economies are faring in the energy transition and it highlights the challenge of reducing coal usage in the country’s power sector.

The reduction is a result of policy measures installed by the Biden Administration, individual states as well as long-term planning by some utilities.

Through to April coal output stood at 8.3 million megawatt hours (MWh), this represents a drop of 1.8% and a 30% drop based on the same period last year and four years ago respectively. 

The exact share of coal in the electricity mix for those first four months of 2024 was 15.6% and is still larger than any individual renewable energy technology source for the same period.

Depending on the weather, electricity consumption and coal-fired generation tend to go up from now until September. This is due to the extra energy needed as the temperatures go up and specially for extremely hot days and periods and heatwaves which have been commonplace in recent years. Within the US power sector, the demand for electricity is at the lowest in spring and autumn as these are the times of the year when there’s the least demand for cooling and heating and as a result also when coal consumption tends to be at it lowest.

However, energy analysts had expected that coal usage would have dropped lower than it did and that renewables would account for more than it did. Despite a significant increase in generation from wind and solar farms as more capacity has been installed, compared to the same period last year, wind power for instance only increased by 1.4%. 

A mixed picture

Across the US the picture is mixed in terms of how well states are doing to transition away from coal.

Texas, the state with the second-largest population in the US, but the highest electricity consumer has done well to transition away from coal as its share in the electricity mix is at 13%. A large part of that is a result of the rapid revolution of wind farms being constructed in the state. 

But in the five states of North Dakota, Missouri, Kentucky, Wyoming and West Virginia coal produces over half its electricity consumption, with the latter most reliant on coal at 85%.

With climate change intensifying year on year, the demand for cooling applications is only going to increase which in return will also increase electricity demand unless there’s a significant breakthrough in producing cooling solutions with less electricity that is commonplace today. 

Even with a continuing rapid increase in renewables if there’s also a significant increase in electricity demand in the US, it is possible that extra capacity will not do much to dent coal’s share in the electricity mix.

But in what direction the energy transition takes in the US very much depend on whether Joe Biden or Donald Trump will be the US President after the crucial November election.