By Anders Lorenzen

Research conducted by the campaign group Christian Aid has unveiled a significant threat to the world’s avocado production.

The overriding threat to the water-intensive fruit comes from climate change.

The report pointed out that this is another reason why there must be faster emission cuts, as well as more support for farmers.

The fact that avocados are so water-hungry makes it particularly vulnerable to climate change.  Many of the top-growing regions are in drought-prone areas, which will only continue to deteriorate with continued warming, in countries that are not reducing emissions as fast as climate science demands.

While this kind of luxury food (superfood) is seen in the western developed world as “nice to have” rather than a necessity, this is not the case in many other parts of the world.  For many people around the world, the avocado fruit is an important part of their diet, rich in fibre and vitamins and providing essential nutrition.

The numbers

The report, Getting Smashed: The climate danger facing avocados highlights, that the areas globally that are suitable for avocado production are expected to decline by between 14% and 41% by 2050. The uncertainty and the huge difference between those two numbers can be explained by how quickly emissions are reduced. The more pessimistic scenarios are at the upper end of the scale and vice versa in the more optimistic predictions..

Mexico is where avocado originated, and it is the world’s largest avocado producer.  Its growing area could be reduced by between 31% to 43%,by 2050 looking at possible temperature rises of between 2 degrees C and 5 degrees C..

Climate models estimate the country is expected to face a 2-3 degrees C temperature rise by the end of the century, and a 50-100mm decrease in precipitation by the middle of the century when looking at moderate climate scenarios. This could result in a collapse of a series of crops including avocado.

In Spain, Europe’s top avocado-producing country, heatwaves are on the rise, with a significant threat to the avocado. The 2023 harvest was expected to be 60% smaller than in 2022 as a powerful heatwave affected the growing region.

In South Africa, the impacts are already felt as 87% of avocado workers say they have observed shifting weather patterns, as higher temperatures and lower rainfall were negatively affecting avocado crop yields.

In the tiny African country of Burundi (population appr 13 million), one of the world’s poorest countries, avocados are a crucial source of nutrition and critical to tackling hunger. Hotter temperatures and erratic rainfall are making life hard for avocado growers, pushing up costs and threatening the food security of some of the world’s most vulnerable people.

The South American country, Chile is facing increasing problems due to fungal diseases in avocado trees, coinciding with extensive droughts.

In addition to drastically scaling-up emission reduction and clean energy targets, Christian Aid are calling upon governments to act. They should make more financial support available to vulnerable communities that rely on avocado growing in their diets and livelihoods. so they can adapt to the changing climate. 

Mariana Paoli, Global Advocacy Lead at Christian Aid said: “It’s no surprise that avocados are popular throughout the world, from Brixton to Burundi.  They might be a superfood but their kryptonite is climate change. They are thirsty plants that are ill-suited to a hotter, drought-prone planet which is where we’re heading if rich nations don’t act to cut their fossil fuel use and reduce emissions. Agricultural communities in developing countries are already bearing the brunt of the climate emergency and they rely on stable and predictable climates to feed their families. That is why it’s vital they receive a lot more financial support to adapt to this changing climate.”