By Anders Lorenzen

Florida is one of the US states most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The state, where the political leadership continues denying the scientific consensus of human-induced climate change, has been warned to prepare itself for the tropical storm, Helene.  This is expected to develop into a hurricane before US landfall on Thursday and Friday.

Weather models predict that it will likely develop into a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, with the most likely scenario being for it to land on Florida’s northern Gulf Coast on Thursday evening, and then push further inland to the south on Friday. Forecasters say it will be a major hurricane with life-threatening storm surges, high winds and heavy rains.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, it developed into a category 3 hurricane, with later strengthening into a category 4 hurricane before making US landfall that is predicted to be in the evening local time. En route to Florida, in Central America, it left damaging impacts with Mexico’s Cancún and Cozumel as well as western Cuba in the firing line.

Forecasters estimate that Hurricane Helene will develop into a major hurricane reaching at least category 4 strength before making landfall. 

Perfect hurricane conditions

The temperature in the Gulf of Mexico is at record-high levels for this time of year, creating the perfect conditions for hurricane intensification.  

It is hard to estimate the impacts precisely, but it is believed that storm surges around the Big Bend of Florida could raise water levels to between 3 to 4.5 metres above ground level. 

The Florida authorities have so far placed 40 counties in a state of emergency.

In July Hurricane Beryl made landfall in the US, at category 5 level it was the strongest and most impactful hurricane to make landfall this year, so far.

The Governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, and Senators Rick Scott and Marco Rubio reject the scientific findings of climate change.

There is no Florida gubernatorial election until 2026, and Marco Rubio’s senate seat election is not before 2028. Rick Scott is facing the Democratic challenger, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell this election cycle, who accepts climate science and lists it as one of her key issues. She is expected to narrowly lose to Scott.