By Anders Lorenzen

Turkey’s announcement of two new oil discoveries in the country’s southeast has raised questions about its climate ambitions, coming as COP31 hosts discussions on transitioning away from fossil fuels.

Turkey has announced the discovery of two new oil fields in its south-eastern Gabar region, with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan celebrating the finds as a boost to the country’s energy independence.

The Turkish president said:

We have discovered oil in two further fields in the region. Production began in October at the fields we have named Gaziler and Çardaklı. According to our initial assessments, these two new fields hold an in-situ oil potential of 135m barrels.

Contradicting messaging

However, the announcement comes at an awkward moment for Turkey, as it hosts COP31.

Particularly awkward, as the Turkish government announcement comes on the very same day that delegates have been discussing how the world can transition away from fossil fuels.

The two fields, named Gaziler and Çardaklı, are located in Şırnak province. According to Erdoğan, initial assessments indicate that they contain an estimated 135 million barrels of oil in place.

Production reportedly began in October, and the discoveries are expected to contribute to an expansion of Turkey’s domestic oil output.

The scale of the oil discovery

Speaking after a Cabinet meeting on 9 November, Erdoğan said production in the wider Gabar region currently stands at approximately 84,000 barrels per day, meeting around 8% of Turkey’s oil consumption.

With further development and additional wells, the government expects regional production to exceed 100,000 barrels per day in the second half of 2027.

The announcement was presented by the Turkish president as a positive development for the country’s economy and its efforts to reduce reliance on imported energy.

However, there is an important distinction between the estimated 135 million barrels of oil in place and the volume that can ultimately be commercially recovered. No separate recoverable reserves estimate for the two fields has yet been disclosed.

A difficult moment for Turkey’s climate ambitions

The timing of the announcement has attracted particular attention because it coincides with COP31 discussions on transitioning away from fossil fuels.

It is noteworthy that the announcement from the Turkish government was made on the same day where elsewhere in the country, the outgoing COP30 presidency of Brazil presented its roadmap for transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems.

That roadmap built on the commitment made at COP28 in Dubai. It seeks to turn the international commitment into more practical measures for reducing dependence on coal, oil and gas.

The initiative is particularly relevant because the original COP28 agreement did not establish a detailed implementation pathway for the transition.

Turkey, meanwhile, is seeking to position itself as an important international player in the energy transition. Alongside Australia, it has promoted an ambition to increase the share of global final energy consumption met by electricity to 35% by 2035.

But electrification alone does not necessarily mean decarbonisation. The climate benefits depend heavily on how that electricity is generated and whether fossil fuels are displaced rather than simply supplemented by expanding energy demand.

Turkey’s announcement of further oil development therefore raises questions about how its domestic energy strategy aligns with its ambitions for the international energy transition.

The question of energy sovereignty

At the same time, it would be too simplistic to suggest that Turkey should not develop its domestic oil resources.

Developing countries have repeatedly challenged the perceived double standards of wealthier Western nations, many of which built their economies on fossil fuels before calling on others to limit their own development.

Energy security, economic development and access to affordable energy remain legitimate priorities, particularly for countries seeking to reduce their dependence on imports and strengthen their economies.

Turkey’s government argues that increased domestic production can help address these challenges. The Gabar discoveries are part of a broader effort to expand national oil production and reduce the country’s exposure to imported energy.

But the argument for energy sovereignty also raises a wider question: how can countries balance their right to develop domestic resources with the global need to reduce fossil fuel consumption and emissions?

That question is not unique to Turkey. Several major emerging economies are simultaneously expanding renewable energy capacity while continuing to invest in fossil fuel production.

What does this mean for COP31?

Turkey’s announcement is unlikely to have a significant immediate impact on global oil supply. Nevertheless, its political and symbolic significance is considerably greater.

For a country hosting the world’s largest annual climate negotiations, celebrating new oil discoveries on the same day that delegates are discussing a transition away from fossil fuels inevitably invites scrutiny, and at best the timing is poor.

It also highlights a challenge facing international climate diplomacy: securing agreement on a global energy transition while recognising that countries have different economic circumstances, energy needs and levels of historical responsibility for emissions.

Had Turkey not hosted this year’s UN climate talks, little would probably have been made of the country’s oil discovery announcement.

But it is expected that the hosts of a COP should be a leader on climate action, and at least not be a leader on extending our fossil fuel reliance and addiction.

As COP31 continues, Turkey will face pressure to show it’s commitment to climate action or be added to the black book of failed COP’s.

Anders Lorenzen is the founding Editor of A greener life, a greener world.